Published on 20 March 2017
news.goldseek.com / By Rambus / 20 March 2017
In this Weekend Report I’m going to update some charts I posted back in November of last year before the PM complex bottomed in late December. What I was showing back in November were many of the H&S tops that were breaking down in an impulse leg to the downside. The lows in December of last year is where they bottomed and began a counter trend rally that took prices back up to the February 2017 highs. From a Chartology perspective all we’ve had so far was a backtest to some of the necklines at this point in time. Maybe it will end up being more, but for now the backtests are holding resistance.
I would like to start with one of the more important ratio charts which compares Gold to the US dollar. During the bull market years this ratio chart built out a parallel uptrend channel that was a thing of beauty. In 2000 this ratio started to build out an inverse H&S bottom which reversed the bear market to a bull market. For the next 11 years this ratio built out one consolidation pattern on top of the next, which is bull market action. Even the crash in 2008 built out a H&S consolidation pattern which launched the rest of the bull market into the 2011 high.
The bottom rail of the major uptrend channel was broken to the downside in April of 2013 which was the defining point on the chart, which reversed the bull market to a bear market. Note the H&S top that formed just below the top rail of the downtrend line in 2016. That is the same H&S top I showed you back in November that had already broken down. You can see the backtest to the underside of the neckline which so far has been the counter trend rally out of the December 2016 low. So from a Chartology perspective nothing has broken yet in regards to the bear market downtrend channel and the backtest to the neckline.
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